The Graying World Population

The world’s population is graying, and that will have major implications for many countries around the world, including the United States. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the world 65-and-older population will triple by mid-century to 1 in 6 people. While this will be a challenge for the United States to support the elderly, it will be devastating for many other developed countries as well as developing countries.

The reason for the graying of the world’s population is two-fold: declining birthrates and medical advances that have extended life spans. The fastest growing age group is seniors, who presently comprise about 8 percent of the world’s population.

The percentage of seniors in the United States is about 13 percent, but the number will double by the middle of this century. This is due in large part to the baby boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964) entering retirement age. In previous commentaries, I have talked about the strain baby boomers will put on current workers and entitlement programs.

But the challenge in other countries will be much greater. Japan has been known as the land of the rising sun, but there is growing evidence that the sun is actually setting on Japan. A few years ago (2005), Japan entered into a phase of decline in which there were more deaths than births within the country. It is a country that allows few immigrants, has few minorities, and has no desire for any. For the rest of this century, we will see Japan continue to age and fall into decline. It appears that nothing will be able to pull it up from its demographic death spiral.

China is also facing a crisis, brought on by its one-child policy. Their current ratio of 16 elderly people per 100 workers will double by 2025, and than double again by mid-century. Given the current economic conditions and government policies, it is likely that millions of older Chinese will fall into poverty in coming years.

As we face the challenges of an aging population, we should be grateful that our challenges are less than those faced in other countries. Once again, demography is destiny. I’m Kerby Anderson, and that’s my point of view.