Pandemics

For years I have been hearing that a major potential threat in the 21st century will be a global pandemic. I have always wanted to research this idea to better understand why futurists believe it is such a threat. The recent swine flu scare gave me a good excuse to understand why scientists fear a runaway pandemic.

Forty years ago the U.S. Surgeon General said, “The time has come to close the book on infectious diseases. We have basically wiped out infection in the United States.” The optimism seemed justified given our success in dealing with 19th century and 20th century infectious diseases. What changed?

An epidemiologist writing in The Wall Street Journal provides an alarming list. First, there is bioterror. The cost of “genetic engineering of viruses is much less complex and far less expensive than sequencing human DNA. Bioterror weapons are cheap and do not need huge labs or government support. They are the poor man’s WMD.”

Second, most pathogenic viruses that affect humans started with animals. This would not only include the recent swine flu but would also include bird flu, SARS, West Nile, Monkey pox, Ebola, and HIV/AIDS.

So why are viruses jumping from animals to humans more frequently? There are two reasons: humans and animals are living closer together and humans are often eating inflected animals. In this modern world, there are fewer barriers between wild animals and humans. There are fewer jungles, rain forests, and wilderness areas.

Poverty in the third world has also driven humans to eat more wild animals. It is estimated that “Africans last year consumed nearly 700 million wild animals” this is approximately two billion kilograms of “bush meat.” The Mekong area (China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia) “is the hotspot for respiratory diseases like SARS or pandemic bird flu.”

It is true that world health organizations are better prepared to deal with a pandemic, but they will have a major challenge on their hands if a global pandemic hits. I’m Kerby Anderson, and that’s my point of view.